<aside> 🌎 You should read this document if: i) you are curious and/or want an analysis of recent events in Ukraine, including Russia’s invasion ii) a discussion of potential outcomes
Background: Russia and Ukraine have a long and complicated history that is entangled in overlapping cultural ties. On February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, directed his military to invade Ukraine. This document details the timeline of Russian-Ukrainian relations, an assessment of Putin’s goals, and an analysis of what may happen next.
*Note 1: This document does not serve as a political commentary but rather a bipartisanship and academic take on current world affairs.
Note 2: As easy as it may be to go down a rabbit hole and completely consume oneself in the news, please be mindful of taking breaks and news fatigue. These events are emotionally distressing. Please be mindful of the frequency of your consumption.
Written by: Luna Ruiz* Last updated: 03-09-2022
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| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 1922 | ⇒ Russia and Ukraine became two of the founding members of the Soviet Union (USSR) |
⇒ Ukraine becomes known as the "the breadbasket of Europe,” a top producer of wheat and major contributor to the economy. A majority of this wheat was traditionally exported from the Crimean peninsula (becomes relevant to this timeline in 2014). Ukraine was the second-most-populous and second-richest Soviet republic. | | 1932-1933 | ⇒ Holodomor: The name capturing years 1932 and 1933 where millions of ethic Ukrainians die from country-wide famine resulting from Joseph Stalin’s policy of collectivization. | | 1941-1944 | Nazi Germany and the Axis powers occupy Ukraine to mobilize troops and distribute resources. | | 1991 | ⇒ At the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine votes for its independence and transition to a market economy. Ukraine inherits significant stockpile of nuclear weapons that had once belonged to the USSR. From all former Soviet republics, Ukraine remains as one with the deepest cultural links to Russia | | December 5, 1994 | ⇒ Budapest Memorandum: Ukraine gives up USSR nuclear stockpile in exchange for Russia’s commitment “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.” Ukraine initiates budding relationship with Western and Democratic countries. | | 1999 | ⇒ The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland become the first former Soviet bloc to join Nato, a military alliance between the U.S. and European allies originally to contain the USSR. This notable expansion pushed the NATO borders 400 miles towards Russia. | | August 1999
December 31, 1999 | ⇒ Putin is appointed prime minister.
⇒ Russian President Yeltsin abruptly resigns and appoints Vladimir Putin as acting president pending elections. | | March 26, 2000 | ⇒ Putin elected president of Russia, capturing just over 50% of the vote. Putin reigns as President until 2008 when appointed as Prime Minister, but is reelected again as president in 2012-Present. | | November – December 2004 | The Orange Revolution Overturns Election Results ****⇒ **** Viktor Yanukovych (Russian backed) defeats Viktor Yushchenko (Western-oriented) in a fraudulent election ⇒ Ukrainian voters protest in the color orange (Yushchenko’s campaign color) and by December, protestors were able to force a re-vote. Results in a victory for Yushchenko ⇒ Ukraine repositions friendly relationship towards Russia after Yushchenko sought potential NATO membership for Ukraine. | | November 2013 to February 2014 | Euromaidan Protests ⇒ Yanukovych beats Yushchenko for presidency in 2010 and reorients Ukraine toward Russia. ⇒ Widespread protests about perceived government corruption spread across the country with high concentration in Maidan Square in Kyiv ⇒ Protests become violent and at least 130 people, primarily civilians, are killed. ⇒ Yanukovych flees to Russia, Oleksandr Turchynov selected as interim president and recommits to orienting Ukraine toward the European Union (EU). | | April 2014 | ⇒Russia invades and annexes the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea (important to note that Crimea is predominately a Russian-ethnic area of Ukraine)
⇒Two secessionist regions, the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic break off from Ukraine (both areas known as the Donbas region) | | September 5, 2014 | Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany enter into a series of cease-fire agreements known as the Minsk Accords which puts an “end” to the conflict in the Donbas republic. The ceasefire has since been violated multiple times with little punishment. | | April 21, 2019 | ⇒ Former comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky elected (by a large majority) as president of Ukraine on a campaign promises to restore Donbas back to Ukraine, more broadly calming tensions with Russia, and addressing corruption in the Ukrainian government. | | February 21, 2022 | Putin recognizes Donbas as sovereign | | February 24, 2022 | Russian military invades Ukraine from three sides | | February 28, 2022 | Russia and Ukraine first attempts to peace discussions near Belarus’ border. |
<aside> 🌎 Brief background: Putin served 15 years as a foreign intelligence officer for the KGB (Committee for State Security), six of those years were in Dresden, East Germany. While stationed in Eastern Germany, he witnessed the Berlin Wall, along with the glory of the Soviet Union, torn down.
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Putin has a historic record of claiming that modern Ukraine was entirely created by communist Russia. Watching in horror as NATO expanded membership in the 1990s, Putin is quoted commentating on the expansion, “... [Russia has] nowhere further to retreat to - do they think we'll just sit idly by?" **Last year, President Putin wrote a** long article describing Russians and Ukrainians as "one nation.” In the long essay, Putin describes the collapse of the USSR (1991) as the "disintegration of historical Russia".
Current Area controlled by Russia (as of February 27, 2022):